The Unsustainable Transition to Net Zero in California
California’s Green and Net Zero Policymakers
California’s policymakers who aim to transition away from fossil fuels have focused on reducing the supply of in-state oil production and refining, but they have failed to provide a backup plan to maintain the supply chain of products and fuels that support the state’s economy.
Global Emissions and the State’s Contribution
The state’s contribution to global emissions is relatively small, at around 0.75%. To put this into perspective, if the entire state were to fall into the Pacific Ocean, the reduction in global emissions would be less than 1%.
The Cost of Transitioning to Net Zero
The amount of money paid by Californians to meet these net-zero green policies is staggering. The cost of compliance with the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Cap-and-Trade program adds significant expenses, with LCFS compliance costing refiners $0.15–$0.20 per gallon and Cap-and-Trade allowances totaling $150–$200 million annually.
The Reality of Renewable Energy
Wind and solar energy cannot replace fossil fuels in meeting the demands of society. Fossil fuels are the supply chain source for all the products and transportation fuels that are demanded by economies, societies, and all the infrastructures.
- Wind and solar can only generate electricity under favorable weather conditions.
- They cannot make EVs, asphalt, tires, or any other products or fuels that are made from fossil fuels.
Refinery Closures and Supply Chain Disruptions
California is facing a shortage of refineries, with the closure of Phillips 66’s Wilmington-area refining complex and the upcoming closure of Valero Benicia Refinery. This will further reduce in-state gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels production capacity, worsening the state’s supply challenges.
| Refinery Closure | Annual Production Loss |
|---|---|
| Phillips 66’s Wilmington-area refining complex | 8% of in-state crude oil processing capacity |
| Valero Benicia Refinery | 9% of in-state crude oil processing capacity |
Rising Regulatory Costs for Oil and Gas
California’s environmental regulations have driven up costs for oil and gas operations, further limiting in-state production. Compliance costs can reach up to $500,000 per well, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Cap-and-Trade program add significant expenses.
Fuel Demand from In-State Refineries
California’s transportation fuel demands are staggering, with:
- Jet fuel: 13 million gallons daily
- Diesel: 10 million gallons daily
- Gasoline: 42 million gallons daily
The Impact on Other States
Arizona and Nevada rely heavily on California’s refineries for their transportation fuel demands. Any disruption in California’s supply chain will have a significant impact on these states.
The Role of China in Meeting California’s Demands
China is planning to build multiple new refineries, with at least five projects expected to be completed by 2028. This will help to meet the transportation fuel demands of California and other states.
The National Security Risks
California’s reliance on foreign oil imports, particularly from China, poses a significant national security risk to the United States. The state’s transportation fuel demands are met by imports of over 70% of its crude oil demand.
The Economic Impact
The state’s passion to transition away from fossil fuels has overregulated and overly burdened the supply chain of oil production and refining, leading to a 40% drop in California’s oil production since 2000. This has resulted in a loss of revenue for the state, with the gas tax revenues contributing to the maintenance of California’s publicly funded roadways.
The Future of Energy
California’s policymakers must reassess their approach to meeting the state’s energy demands. The state’s reliance on foreign oil imports and the impact of refinery closures on the supply chain must be addressed.
Conclusion
The transition to net zero in California is unsustainable without a backup plan to maintain the supply chain of products and fuels that support the state’s economy. The state’s reliance on foreign oil imports and the impact of refinery closures on the supply chain pose significant national security risks and economic challenges. The future of energy in California must be reevaluated, with a focus on finding a sustainable solution to meet the state’s energy demands.
Call to Action
Please share this information with teachers, students, and friends to encourage Energy Literacy conversations at the family dinner table.
